Rex Trulove
I previously explained how the polar jetstream affects the weather in the US. I also explained how it undulates up and down as it moves through the US (or elsewhere), with very cold air north of the jetstream and warmer air south of it.
Right now, the jetstream is climbing northward in the Pacific Northwest. The crest is well into Canada. Then it dips down through eastern Montana, as far as the trough around Tennessee, and from there eastward and over the Atlantic.
People north, east and northeast of Tennesee can expect bitter-cold temperatures, while most of the west is much warmer. Here in Northwest Montana, our highs today should reach at least the low 40s (F) and even warmer tomorrow. Then the next trough will probably go through. Our high temperatures are likely to be in the low teens when it does.
While we are having the cold temperatures, the east and northeast should warm up quite a bit before the trough works its way through and plunges their temperatures down again. The next trough looks to be a bit shallower than the preceding one, so less of the south is likely to be affected.
What conclusions can be drawn for the long-term weather? Virtually none. Montana and much of the northern US have been seeing longer, colder winters and substantially shorter summers for the last several years. It is hard to say if that trend will continue, but it could very well happen.
On average, Montana has warm spring weather by the middle of April. It warms up from there to the heat of summer, which usually lasts until early November. That is “normal”. Last year was anything but normal. April, May, and June were well below average in temperatures, while also being far wetter than normal. It warmed up, finally, on July 5, two and a half months late. The cold temperatures and first snowfall occurred in September, a couple of months early. That’s a growing season of about 75 days; well below normal. This was a repeat of the weather a few years earlier when the same thing occurred.
It is hard to say if we’ll have another very short summer like last year. Our winter so far has been much milder than it was last year and has in fact been just slightly colder and snowier than normal. However, the cold temperatures we should be getting in a few days could be the start of a cold snap. It doesn’t take much for temperatures that are in the teens to dip below zero and February is typically the coldest month in Montana.
Time will tell, but I’m sure hoping for a longer, hotter summer than we had last year. I know that I’m definitely not alone, either. Montana farmers need to have some normal weather for a change if they want to continue growing their crops and making a living. A 75-day growing season makes it very hard on them.
How has the weather been in your area? Do you pay attention to the jetstream and what it is doing?
I can’t wait for summer. I’m in Chicago and the past few days have been a living Hell.
Yes, the weather in Chicago has been brutal. The good news is that it should warm up a little in the coming days before the next round of cold, potentially snowy weather.
It’s supposed to get increasingly warmer every day between now and Monday when it’s supposed to be in the 50s. Even after that the temps will be in the 30s 2hih is normal for this time of the year. Almost anything is better than what we’ve had. I couldn’t even take my dog out.
The next wave is coming ashore along the west coast. California from south of LA and all the way up the coast to Northern Oregon is going to get torrential rain in the lower country and feet of snow in the Sierra’s and Cascades. By the time the moisture reaches us here in Montana, it’ll be freezing rain, then rain/snow mix, finally turning to snow. There are already storm watches posted for Montana. It won’t be especially cold, probably, with cold temps around 0, but we should get a strong dose of snow by the time it moves through.
These storms will move east and southeast, but it should be mostly rain until the jetstream veers south. I’m not sure how much moisture will be left by the time it reaches you, so you might be spared the brunt of the snow.
This coming bout isn’t particularly unusual for February, though.
I saw today on Twitter that California is currently experiencing severe flooding. Last fall they were telling us that, because of El Niño, we were going to have a mild winter. I don’t know where our El Niño went or what we did to offend it but I want it back.
They are loathed to admit when an El Nino prediction is wrong and it is even worse when there is a La Nina. La Ninas, in particular, fly against the catastrophic global warming models. The last very strong one we had, they didn’t admit to until it was already weakening and they were cornered. They had little choice but to admit that it was a La Nina.
Yeah, facts don’t mean much to the climate alarmists.
It has been the coldest winter we have had in a very long time. But no snow, just a few flurries so far.
You might still get some snow. This rather reminds me of the bad winter of 2014, when the jetstream dipped all the way down to northern Mexico. Snow snarled traffic in Georgia and a lot of citrus trees were lost in Florida. Thankfully, this isn’t quite that bad.