How long are we able to keep a secret?

       A scientist form Oxford, David Grams, claims that even with a mathematics formula one could check and claim whether some verification theory, like the visit of the Moon, are true or not. As he claims, all this has something to do with a simple fact – whether the truth will be revealed and how long will it take for it to be revealed depends on the number of the people who know the truth. He believes that his formula could reveal how long a secret could remain a secret. 

       According to this formula, if there are 125 people who know a secret, this means that this very secret could be kept for centuries. On the other hand, if there are 2521 people who know a secret, the same secret would be revealed no later than five years. 

       For the science project he took the four widely known verification theories:

   – the landing on Moon – (411 people working with NASA)

   – the ones who believe in the climate changes – (405 000)

   – the movement against vaccine – (22 000) – if you consider the number of the employees in the American center for diseases the number rices up to 736 000

   – the belief that there is a medicine for cancer – (711 000)

       The results are the following: 

   – the secret for the climate changes will be kept for only three years and nine months

   – in only three years and two months the truth will be revealed whether the American nation had been lied to about the vaccine 

   – in three years and three months we will get to know whether there is a cure for cancer

       David Grams study and research has been published on a site of a non-profitable organization that publishes science texts. 


What do you think?


  1. I am not buying that these are all secrets. Many of these are simply theories and guesses that have no real answers. I could be totally wrong and still it is what I think!

  2. it would be interesting to know whether these secrets were kept as predicted based on number of people knew it. it would be further interesting to carry out gender wise research also…..